European economic review 2023年第1期
——更多动态，请持续关注gzh：理想主义的百年孤独
1.The state of hiring discrimination: A meta-analysis of (almost) all recent correspondence experiments
招聘歧视的现状:(几乎)近期所有通信实验的元分析
Louis Lippens, Siel Vermeiren, Stijn Baert
Notwithstanding the improved integration of various minority groups in the workforce, unequal treatment in hiring still hinders many individuals’ access to the labour market. To tackle this inaccessibility, it is essential to know which and to what extent minority groups face hiring discrimination. This meta-analysis synthesises a quasi-exhaustive register of correspondence experiments on hiring discrimination published between 2005 and 2020. Using a random-effects model, we computed pooled discrimination ratios concerning ten discrimination grounds upon which unequal treatment in hiring is forbidden by law. Our meta-analysis shows that hiring discrimination against candidates with disabilities, older candidates, and less physically attractive candidates seems equally severe as the unequal treatment of candidates with salient racial or ethnic characteristics. Moreover, hiring discrimination against older applicants is more prominent in Europe than in the United States. Last, while we initially find a significant decrease in ethnic hiring discrimination in (Western) Europe, we find no structural evidence of recent temporal changes in hiring discrimination when controlling for the minority groups considered, at the country level, or based on the various other grounds within the scope of this review.
尽管各少数群体融入劳动力市场的情况有所改善，但雇用方面的不平等待遇仍然妨碍许多人进入劳动力市场。为了解决这种难以接近的问题，必须知道少数群体在哪些方面以及在多大程度上面临招聘歧视。这项云分析综合了2005年至2020年期间发布的关于招聘歧视的近乎详尽的对应实验登记册。利用随机效应模型，我们计算了关于法律禁止在招聘中进行不平等待遇的十个歧视理由的综合歧视比率。我们的元分析表明，对残疾候选人、年龄较大的候选人和外貌较差的候选人的招聘歧视似乎与对具有明显种族或民族特征的候选人的不平等对待一样严重。此外，在欧洲，对年长求职者的招聘歧视比美国更突出。最后，虽然我们最初发现(西欧)的种族雇佣歧视显著减少，但在国家层面上控制考虑的少数群体或基于本审查范围内的各种其他理由时，我们没有发现雇佣歧视最近的时间变化的结构性证据。
2.Asylum policies and international tensions
庇护政策和国际紧张局势
Florin Cucu, Ludovic Panon
This article examines how international relation dynamics shape asylum policies. Using data on asylum applications in the European Union (EU) and international events from 1999 to 2017, we document that EU Member States admit relatively more refugees when diplomatic relations with the country of origin deteriorate. This result holds after controlling for push and pull factors as well as bilateral determinants of refugee migration. Our results highlight the importance of non-humanitarian factors in the grant of political asylum.
本文探讨了国际关系动态如何塑造庇护政策。利用1999年至2017年欧盟(EU)庇护申请和国际事件的数据，我们发现，当与原籍国的外交关系恶化时，欧盟成员国会接纳相对更多的难民。在控制了推动和拉动因素以及难民迁移的双边决定因素后，这一结果仍然成立。我们的结果突出了非人道主义因素在给予政治庇护方面的重要性。
3.Taxation and the transfer of patents: Evidence from Europe
税收与专利转让:来自欧洲的证据
Laurie Ciaramella
I study how taxes affect firms’ incentives to shift the location of intangible assets. Using firm-level data on patent reassignments, I exploit variations in statutory tax rates and the introduction of “patent box” policies as shocks modifying incentives to transfer patents across countries. The results suggest a large impact of taxes on asset shifting between affiliates, increasing with expected patent income, and driven by very large firms. Patent boxes are persistently associated with more incoming and less outgoing patent relocations between affiliates. These findings suggest that taxes provide firms with incentives to shift income via patent relocation, and advocate for considering patent transfer strategies in tax policy.
我研究了税收如何影响企业转移无形资产地点的动机。利用公司层面的专利再分配数据，我利用法定税率的变化和“专利箱”政策的引入作为冲击，修改了跨国专利转移的激励。研究结果表明，税收对子公司间资产转移的影响很大，随着预期专利收入的增加而增加，并由非常大的公司驱动。专利箱总是与关联公司之间更多的进入和更少的流出专利迁移联系在一起。这些结果表明，税收为企业通过专利转移实现收入转移提供了激励，并为专利转移战略的制定提供了政策依据。
4.Understanding cognitive decline in older ages: The role of health shocks
了解老年人认知能力下降:健康冲击的作用
Valentin Schiele, Hendrik Schmitz
Individual cognitive functioning declines over time. We seek to understand how adverse physical health shocks in older ages contribute to this development. By use of event-study methods and data from the USA, England, and several countries in Continental Europe, we find evidence that health shocks lead to an immediate and persistent decline in cognitive functioning. This robust finding holds in all regions representing different health insurance systems and seems to be independent of underlying individual demographic characteristics such as sex and age. We also ask whether variables that are susceptible to policy action can reduce the negative consequences of a health shock. Our results suggest that neither compulsory education nor retirement regulations moderate the effects, thus emphasizing the importance for cognitive functioning of maintaining good physical health in old age.
个人认知功能会随着时间的推移而下降。我们试图了解老年时不利的身体健康冲击是如何促成这一发展的。通过使用事件研究方法和来自美国、英国和欧洲大陆几个国家的数据，我们发现了健康冲击导致认知功能立即和持续下降的证据。这一强有力的发现适用于代表不同医疗保险系统的所有地区，似乎与性别和年龄等潜在的个人人口特征无关。我们还询问，易受政策行动影响的变量是否能够减少健康冲击的负面后果。我们的研究结果表明，义务教育和退休规定都没有调节这种影响，因此强调了在老年保持良好身体健康的认知功能的重要性。
5.Indebted sellers, liquidity and mortgage standards
负债的卖方、流动性和抵押贷款标准
Allen Head, Hongfei Sun, Chenggang Zhou
The effects of households’ indebtedness on their house selling decisions, the implications of these decisions for default and the effects of policies intended to reduce the incentive to default are studied in a dynamic model with search in the housing market and defaultable long-term mortgages. In equilibrium, both sellers’ asking prices and time-to-sell increase with the relative size of their outstanding debt. For sellers in financial distress, this behavior results in a positive relationship between debt and their individual risk of default. Prices and time-to-sell determine both the liquidity of the housing market and the aggregate risk of default. As such they determine the extent of profitable lending by competitive lenders. Calibrated to the U.S. economy, the model also generates, as observed, positive correlations (i) across sellers of asking prices with loan-to-value ratios, and (ii) over time of both house prices and time-to-sell with mortgage loan-to-value ratios at mortgage origination. Policies aimed at reducing default may be counterproductive if they raise the value of mortgages and thus lower lending standards, ultimately increasing the rate of default and reducing aggregate welfare. We consider also the implications of these policies for the effects of aggregate shocks on house prices and the rate and severity of mortgage default.
在一个动态模型中，研究了家庭负债对其房屋出售决策的影响，这些决策对违约的影响，以及旨在减少违约激励的政策的影响，该模型在住房市场和违约长期抵押贷款中进行了搜索。在均衡状态下，卖方的要价和出售时间都随着其未偿债务的相对规模而增加。对于处于财务困境的卖方，这种行为导致债务与其个人违约风险呈正相关关系。价格和出售时间决定了住房市场的流动性和总体违约风险。因此，它们决定了有竞争力的贷款人提供有利可图的贷款的程度。根据美国经济校准，该模型还产生了观察到的正相关性(i)要价卖家与贷款与价值比率之间的正相关性，以及(ii)随着时间的推移，房价和出售时间与抵押贷款发放时的抵押贷款与价值比率之间的正相关性。如果旨在减少违约的政策提高了抵押贷款的价值，从而降低了贷款标准，最终增加了违约率，减少了总体福利，那么这些政策可能会适得其反。我们还考虑了这些政策对房价、抵押贷款违约率和严重程度的总体冲击的影响。
6.Communicating Monetary Policy Rules
沟通货币政策规则
Troy Davig, Andrew Foerster
Despite the ubiquity of inflation targeting, central banks communicate their frameworks in a variety of ways. No central bank explicitly expresses their conduct via a policy rule, which contrasts with models of policy. Central banks often connect theory with practice by publishing inflation forecasts that can, in principle, implicitly convey their reaction function. We return to this central idea to show how a central bank can achieve the gains of a rule-based policy without publicly stating a specific rule. The approach requires central banks to specify an inflation target, inflation tolerance bands, and provide economic projections. When inflation moves outside the band, inflation forecasts provide a time frame over which inflation will return to within the band. We show how this communication replicates and provides the same information as a rule-based policy. The communication strategy produces a natural benchmark for assessing central bank performance. We illustrate these features in a counterfactual monetary policy history of the United States.
尽管通胀目标制无处不在，但央行以各种方式传达其框架。没有一家央行通过政策规则明确表达自己的行为，这与政策模型不同。央行经常通过发布通胀预测将理论与实践联系起来，这些预测原则上可以含蓄地传达其反应功能。我们回到这一中心思想，以说明央行如何在不公开声明具体规则的情况下实现基于规则的政策的收益。这种方法要求央行指定一个通胀目标、通胀容忍区间，并提供经济预测。当通胀在区间外移动时，通胀预测提供了一个时间框架，在这个时间框架内，通胀将回到区间内。我们将展示这种通信如何复制并提供与基于规则的策略相同的信息。沟通战略为评估央行的表现提供了一个天然的基准。我们在美国反事实的货币政策历史中阐明了这些特征。
7.The demographic transition and the asset supply channel
人口转型与资产供给渠道
Pedro S. Amaral
This paper examines the macroeconomic consequences of a demographic transition in an environment where a producer’s capital structure is relevant, thereby introducing an asset supply channel. Producers are heterogeneous with respect to how productive they are in different states of the world, and may pursue different combinations of safe and/or risky securities issuance when financing projects. I simulate a demographic transition calibrated to replicate the US experience starting in 1880. This transition results in modest increases in output, larger increases in saving as a whole and, particularly, in a relative increase in saving in the form of safe assets. Lower capital costs lead to producer entry (and more issuance) and to a tilt towards safe issuance. I show that omitting this asset supply channel, as standard representative firm models do, results in a quantitatively important overestimation of the transmission effects of the demographic transition, with larger output gains despite smaller interest rate reductions.
本文研究了在生产者资本结构相关的环境中，人口转型的宏观经济后果，从而引入了资产供应渠道。生产者在世界不同国家的生产力是不同的，在为项目融资时，他们可能追求不同的安全和/或风险证券发行组合。我模拟了一场人口转型，旨在复制美国从1880年开始的经历。这种转变导致产出温和增长，整体储蓄大幅增长，特别是以安全资产形式存在的储蓄相对增加。较低的资本成本导致生产商进入(以及更多的发行)，并向安全发行倾斜。我的研究表明，如果像标准的代表性公司模型那样忽略这一资产供应渠道，就会在定量上高估人口转型的传导效应，尽管利率下调幅度较小，但产出收益仍较大。
8.Levelling the debt–equity playing field: Evidence from Belgium
平衡债务权益竞争环境:来自比利时的证据
Muhammad Meki
I explore whether a Belgian policy that reduced the corporate tax bias towards debt finance was successful in lowering firm leverage. Using putatively exogenous time series variation in the cost of equity financing and a difference-in-differences strategy that includes similar firms from surrounding countries, I find that the policy did lead to increased equity ratios, with some evidence of a shift from short-term debt to long-term debt.
我探讨了比利时一项减少企业对债务融资的税收偏向的政策是否成功地降低了企业的杠杆率。利用假设外生的股权融资成本的时间序列变化和包括周边国家类似企业在内的双重差分策略，我发现该政策确实导致了股权融资比例的上升，并有证据表明，短期债务转向长期债务。
9.Economic forecasting with an agent-based model
基于代理人模型的经济预测
Sebastian Poledna, Michael Gregor Miess, Cars Hommes, Katrin Rabitsch
We develop the first agent-based model (ABM) that can compete with benchmark VAR and DSGE models in out-of-sample forecasting of macro variables. Our ABM for a small open economy uses micro and macro data from national accounts, sector accounts, input–output tables, government statistics, and census and business demography data. The model incorporates all economic activities as classified by the European System of Accounts (ESA 2010) and includes all economic sectors populated with millions of heterogeneous agents. In addition to being a competitive model framework for forecasts of aggregate variables, the detailed structure of the ABM allows for a breakdown into sector-level forecasts. Using this detailed structure, we demonstrate the ABM by forecasting the medium-run macroeconomic effects of lockdown measures taken in Austria to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. Potential applications of the model include stress-testing and predicting the effects of monetary or fiscal macroeconomic policies.
我们开发了第一个能够与基准VAR和DSGE模型在宏观变量样本外预测方面竞争的基于agent的模型(ABM)。我们针对小型开放经济体的ABM使用了来自国民核算、部门核算、投入产出表、政府统计数据以及人口普查和商业人口统计数据的微观和宏观数据。该模型包含了欧洲核算体系(ESA 2010)分类的所有经济活动，并包括了拥有数百万异质代理的所有经济部门。ABM的详细结构除了作为一个综合变量预测的有竞争力的模型框架外，还允许细分为部门级别的预测。使用该详细结构，我们通过预测奥地利为抗击COVID-19大流行而采取的封锁措施的中期宏观经济影响来演示ABM。该模型的潜在应用包括压力测试和预测货币或财政宏观经济政策的影响。
10.Does working from home work? A natural experiment from lockdowns
在家工作有用吗?这是封锁带来的自然实验
Lucas Shen
Using tracked changes from a large open-source software platform, this paper studies how working from home affected the output of individuals working in tech. The basis of the natural experiment comes from idiosyncratic and state-imposed workplace closures during the COVID-19 pandemic. I find a negative but almost-negligible change in individual-level output of 0.5 percent (standard error of 0.091 percent). Overall, and based on descriptive analyses of the time-stamped data, tracked changes in software development cadences approximate regular work activity and provide a useful avenue for future studies of work.
通过使用一个大型开源软件平台的跟踪变化，本文研究了在家工作如何影响在科技领域工作的个人的产出。自然实验的基础来自COVID-19大流行期间独特的和国家强制的工作场所关闭。我发现，个人层面的产出出现了0.5%的负变化，但几乎可以忽略不计(标准误差为0.091%)。总的来说，基于时间戳数据的描述性分析，跟踪了软件开发节奏的变化，接近正常的工作活动，并为未来的工作研究提供了一个有用的途径。
11.Bank capital requirement shocks: A narrative perspective
银行资本要求冲击:叙事视角
Antonio M. Conti, Andrea Nobili, Federico M. Signoretti
We provide new estimates of the impact of shocks to bank capital requirements on lending supply and macroeconomic activity based on a Bayesian VAR estimated on Italian data and identified combining sign and narrative restrictions. Narrative restrictions are based on the EBA 2011 Stress Test (ST) and the ECB 2014 Comprehensive Assessment (CA) and are corroborated by evidence from the Euro Area Bank Lending Survey. IRFs show that shocks to required capital persistently reduce R.W.A. and loan supply and lead to a temporary decline in GDP. Based on historical decomposition, the ST and the CA increased banks’ Tier 1 ratio by 40 bps and determined a contraction in loan supply and GDP after two years of up to 1.5% and 0.5%, respectively. Results are robust to using alternative narrative restrictions and hold also when controlling for market pressure during the sovereign debt crisis and for global shocks to bank capitalization.
我们基于对意大利数据的贝叶斯VAR估计，并确定了符号和叙述限制的结合，提供了银行资本要求冲击对贷款供应和宏观经济活动的影响的新估计。叙述限制基于EBA 2011年压力测试(ST)和欧洲央行2014年综合评估(CA)，并由欧元区银行贷款调查的证据证实。IRFs表明，对必需资本的冲击持续地降低了r.w.a和贷款供应，并导致GDP的暂时下降。根据历史分解，ST和CA将银行的一级比率提高了40个基点，并确定贷款供应和GDP在两年后分别收缩1.5%和0.5%。在控制了主权债务危机期间的市场压力和全球对银行资本的冲击后，结果在使用其他叙事限制时也是稳健的。
12.Fiscal stimulus in liquidity traps: Conventional or unconventional policies?
流动性陷阱中的财政刺激:常规政策还是非常规政策?
Matthieu Lemoine, Jesper Lindé
Recent influential work argue that a gradual increase in the sales tax stimulates economic activity in a liquidity trap by boosting inflation expectations. Higher public infrastructure investment should also be more expansive in a liquidity trap than in normal times by raising the potential interest rate and increasing aggregate demand. We analyze the relative merits of these policies in New Keynesian models with and without endogenous private capital formation and heterogeneity when monetary policy does not respond by raising policy rates. Our key finding is that the effectiveness of sales tax hikes differs notably across various model specifications, whereas the benefits of higher public infrastructure investment are more robust in alternative model environments. We therefore conclude that fiscal policymakers in liquidity traps should consider spending opportunities and not merely rely on tax policies to stimulate growth.
最近有影响力的研究认为，逐步提高销售税会提高通胀预期，从而刺激陷入流动性陷阱的经济活动。在流动性陷阱中，通过提高潜在利率和增加总需求，增加公共基础设施投资也应该比正常时期更具扩大性。在货币政策不以提高政策利率作为回应的情况下，我们在有和没有内生私人资本形成和异质性的情况下，用新凯恩斯模型分析了这些政策的相对优点。我们的主要发现是，提高销售税的有效性在不同的模型规范中存在显著差异，而在其他模型环境中，更高的公共基础设施投资的收益更稳健。因此，我们的结论是，处于流动性陷阱中的财政政策制定者应该考虑支出机会，而不仅仅是依靠税收政策来刺激增长。
13.Monetary–fiscal crosswinds in the European Monetary Union
欧洲货币联盟的货币-财政侧风
Lucrezia Reichlin, Giovanni Ricco, Matthieu Tarbé
We study the monetary–fiscal mix in the European Monetary Union. The medium and long-run effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy are analysed by combining monetary policy shocks identified in a Structural VAR, and the general government budget constraint featuring a single central bank and multiple fiscal authorities. In response to a conventional easing of the policy rate, the cumulated response of the fiscal deficit is positive. Conversely, in response to an unconventional easing affecting the long end of the yield curve, the primary fiscal position barely moves. This is consistent with the long-run effect of unconventional monetary easing on the price index, which is about half that of conventional easing. The aggregate long-run cumulated surplus is mainly driven by Germany’s fiscal policy during the period in which unconventional monetary policy was adopted.
我们研究了欧洲货币联盟的货币-财政组合。本文结合结构性VAR所识别的货币政策冲击，以及单一央行和多财政部门的政府一般预算约束，分析了常规和非常规货币政策的中长期效应。作为对政策利率常规宽松的回应，财政赤字的累积反应是积极的。相反，为了应对影响收益率曲线长端的非常规宽松政策，主要财政状况几乎没有变化。这与非常规货币宽松政策对物价指数的长期影响是一致的，其影响约为常规宽松政策的一半。长期累计盈余总量主要是由德国采取非常规货币政策期间的财政政策驱动的。
14.Firm behaviour under negative deposit rates
负存款利率下的企业行为
Kim Abildgren, Andreas Kuchler
Using rich microdata from Denmark, the first country in the world to move its key monetary-policy rate below zero, we find that firms which become exposed to negative interest rates on their bank deposits increase their fixed investments and employment to a larger extent than what can be explained by the associated reduction in the level of interest rates. They also tend to rebalance their liquid portfolio, reduce their degree of leverage and become more inclined to change bank connections. Our results also indicate that it is the event of becoming exposed to negative rates (the extensive margin), not the share of deposits exposed to negative interest rates (the intensive margin), that matters for firm behaviour. These findings support the existence of a corporate channel of monetary transmission when bank deposit rates cross zero and become negative.
利用丹麦(世界上第一个将关键货币政策利率降至零以下的国家)丰富的微观数据，我们发现，银行存款面临负利率的企业增加固定投资和就业的程度，超过了相关利率水平下降所能解释的程度。它们还倾向于重新平衡流动性投资组合，降低杠杆程度，并更倾向于改变与银行的关系。我们的结果还表明，对企业行为至关重要的是受到负利率(扩展边际)影响的事件，而不是受到负利率(集约边际)影响的存款份额。这些发现支持了当银行存款利率超过零并变为负值时，企业货币传导渠道的存在。
15.Structural change and productivity growth in Europe — Past, present and future
欧洲的结构变化和生产率增长-过去、现在和未来
Georg Duernecker, Miguel Sanchez-Martinez
This paper studies the effect of structural change on the historical path of aggregate labor productivity growth for a large sample of European countries, and it builds a quantitative multi-sector growth model to analyze the potential impact that structural change may have on future productivity growth. We document that the observed reallocation of economic activity since the 1970s towards the service sector has exerted a strongly negative effect on aggregate productivity growth in most European countries. Moreover, we perform a quantitative analysis to show that the expected path of structural change might continue to have a sizeable dent on future productivity growth in Europe. By contrast, the impact in the U.S. is expected to rapidly diminish. We show that this differential result can be explained by the large expansion, in Europe, of certain service sub-sectors characterized by stagnant productivity.
本文以欧洲国家为样本，研究了结构变动对总劳动生产率增长历史路径的影响，并构建了一个定量的多部门增长模型，分析了结构变动对未来生产率增长可能产生的潜在影响。我们发现，自20世纪70年代以来，经济活动向服务业的重新分配对大多数欧洲国家的总生产率增长产生了强烈的负面影响。此外，我们进行了定量分析，以表明结构性变化的预期路径可能会继续对欧洲未来的生产率增长产生重大影响。相比之下，预计美国的影响将迅速减弱。我们表明，这种差异结果可以解释为，在欧洲，某些以生产率停滞为特征的服务子部门的大幅扩张。
16.Gender-based price discrimination in the annuity market: Evidence from Chile
年金市场中的性别价格歧视:来自智利的证据
Piera Bello
This paper provides the first evidence for discriminatory behaviour against female consumers in the annuity market. It focuses on Chile, where an electronic bidding system allows retirees to receive offers, simultaneously from several firms in the market for the same standardised annuity product. By exploiting within-individual variation in initial offers across firms, this analysis shows that firms with market power offer more unfairly priced annuities to women than to men. This result is driven by highly rated firms. Gender differences in financial literacy can explain why firms find it profitable to offer higher prices to women.
本文提供了年金市场上对女性消费者的歧视行为的第一个证据。它专注于智利，那里的电子投标系统允许退休人员同时从市场上的几家公司收到相同标准化年金产品的报价。通过利用不同公司初始报价的个体差异，该分析表明，具有市场力量的公司向女性提供的年金定价比男性更不公平。这一结果是由高评级公司推动的。财务知识上的性别差异可以解释为什么公司认为向女性提供更高的价格是有利可图的。
17.Immigrant intergenerational mobility: A focus on childhood environment
移民代际流动性:关注儿童环境
Cristina Bratu, Valentin Bolotnyy
Over 60% of immigrant parents in Sweden start off in the bottom quintile of the income distribution, yet only about 30% of their children are still in the bottom income quintile in adulthood. This progress notwithstanding, we show using administrative data that immigrant children who grow up in the 20th income percentile place three income ranks lower than native children of similarly low-income parents. This income gap cannot be explained by differences in parent education levels, family structure, or municipality of residence. The gap can, however, be explained by differences in immediate, 100 × 100 - m neighborhoods. Immigrant children grow up in relatively denser neighborhoods with fewer native-born and high-earning neighbors. Data from Stockholm suggest that immigrant families sort into different neighborhoods than natives due to Sweden’s rental housing allocation mechanism that is based on waiting time rather than market rents.
在瑞典，超过60%的移民父母从收入分配的最底层的五分之一开始，但他们的孩子在成年后仍然处于收入分配的最底层的五分之一，只有大约30%。尽管取得了这一进展，但我们使用行政数据表明，在收入第20百分位长大的移民儿童的收入排名比同样低收入父母的本地儿童低3位。这种收入差距不能用父母教育水平、家庭结构或居住城市的差异来解释。然而，这种差距可以用直接的100 × 100 m邻域的差异来解释。移民儿童在人口相对稠密的社区长大，本地出生和高收入的邻居较少。来自斯德哥尔摩的数据表明，由于瑞典的租赁住房分配机制是基于等待时间而不是市场租金，移民家庭比当地人分属不同的社区。
18.Saving constraints, inequality, and the credit market response to fiscal stimulus
储蓄约束、不平等以及信贷市场对财政刺激的反应
Jorge Miranda-Pinto, Daniel Murphy, Kieran James Walsh, Eric R. Young
We document substantial heterogeneity in the interest rate response to fiscal stimulus (IRRF) across OECD economies. The IRRF is negative in half of the OECD countries, and it declines with income inequality. To interpret this evidence we develop a model in which moderately-low-income households take on debt to maintain a consumption threshold (effectively a saving constraint). Now burdened with debt, these households use additional income to deleverage. In more unequal economies with more saving-constrained households, increases in government spending tighten credit conditions less (relax credit conditions more), leading to smaller increases (larger declines) in the interest rate.
我们发现，经济合作与发展组织(OECD)经济体对财政刺激(IRRF)的利率反应存在显著异质性。在一半的经合组织国家中，IRRF为负，并且随着收入不平等而下降。为了解释这一证据，我们开发了一个模型，在该模型中，中等低收入家庭通过举债来维持消费门槛(实际上是一种储蓄约束)。这些家庭现在背负着债务，利用额外的收入去杠杆化。在不平等程度更高、家庭储蓄受限程度更高的经济体中，政府支出的增加对信贷条件的收紧程度较低(更多地放松信贷条件)，导致利率的增幅较小(降幅较大)。
19.Taxation, social welfare, and labor market frictions
税收、社会福利和劳动力市场摩擦
Brendan Epstein, Ryan Nunn, Musa Orak, Elena Patel
Taking taxation inefficiencies as given, a well-known public finance result is that in partial equilibrium the elasticity of taxable income (ETI) is a sufficient statistic for the deadweight loss (DWL) from labor income taxation. We revisit this result using a general equilibrium macroeconomic framework with labor search frictions. Our theory parses out the extent to which search frictions in and of themselves can distort the DWL-ETI relationship. Numerical analysis suggests that DWL is nearly 10 percent above the ETI given search frictions, only. Accounting for externalities can drive this figure up to about 20 percent, and accounting unemployment benefits can increase this number up to nearly 40 percent. Parsing out these effects both analytically and quantitatively yields novel results that contribute jointly to the public finance and macroeconomic literatures.
在税收效率低下的情况下，一个著名的公共财政结果是，在局部均衡中，应纳税收入弹性(ETI)是劳动所得税无谓损失(DWL)的充分统计量。我们使用一个带有劳动搜索摩擦的一般均衡宏观经济框架来重新审视这一结果。我们的理论分析了搜索摩擦本身可以扭曲DWL-ETI关系的程度。数值分析表明，在考虑搜索摩擦的情况下，DWL比ETI高出近10%。计入外部性可以将这一数字提高到20%左右，计入失业救济可以将这一数字提高到近40%。分析和定量分析这些影响产生了新的结果，共同有助于公共财政和宏观经济文献。
18.Preventing financial disasters: Macroprudential policy and financial crises
防范金融灾难:宏观审慎政策与金融危机
Alvaro Fernandez-Gallardo
The ultimate goal of macroprudential policy is to prevent and reduce the costs of systemic financial crises, and thus contribute to promoting sustainable economic growth. However, despite the active role played by such policies in recent decades, there is still limited empirical evidence regarding whether prudential regulation is effective to enhance financial stability by preventing and mitigating crisis risk. This paper seeks to close that gap by studying the relationship between macroprudential policy and both the likelihood and severity of financial crises. The contribution of the paper is twofold. First, I show that macroprudential policy tightenings are successful at reducing the frequency of systemic financial crises. Moreover, this result holds even if macroprudential policies are implemented when the economy is already experiencing a financial boom or when monetary conditions are rather accommodative. I point to the prevention and mitigation of financial booms as the main transmission mechanism through which macroprudential policy defuses crisis risk. Second, I find that macroprudential policy enhances the resilience of the financial system, by dampening the output losses associated with future systemic financial crises. The latter result implies that macroprudential policy not only makes financial crises less likely, but also less painful.
宏观审慎政策的最终目标是预防和降低系统性金融危机的成本，从而有助于促进经济的可持续增长。然而，尽管近几十年来这些政策发挥了积极作用，但关于审慎监管是否能够有效地通过预防和缓解危机风险来增强金融稳定性的经验证据仍然有限。本文试图通过研究宏观审慎政策与金融危机发生的可能性和严重程度之间的关系来弥补这一差距。本文的贡献有两个方面。首先，我表明，宏观审慎政策收紧在降低系统性金融危机发生的频率方面是成功的。此外，即使在经济已经经历金融繁荣或货币条件相当宽松的情况下实施宏观审慎政策，这一结果也是成立的。我指出，预防和缓解金融繁荣是宏观审慎政策化解危机风险的主要传导机制。其次，我发现宏观审慎政策通过抑制与未来系统性金融危机相关的产出损失，增强了金融体系的弹性。后一种结果意味着，宏观审慎政策不仅降低了发生金融危机的可能性，也降低了危机带来的痛苦。
19.Gains from monetary policy cooperation under asymmetric currency pricing
非对称货币定价下货币政策合作的收益
Myunghyun Kim
In most international trade transactions, the U.S. dollar is used. Hence, this study considers optimal monetary policy in a two-country model under asymmetric currency pricing (ACP) in which U.S. (Home) firms use producer currency pricing (PCP) while firms in the rest of the world (Foreign) use local currency pricing (LCP). In the ACP model, there is an additional inefficiency, namely, the internal relative price distortion compared with the LCP model and the distortion arising from deviations from the law of one price compared with the PCP model. Consequently, welfare gains from monetary policy cooperation in the ACP model are substantially greater compared with the LCP and PCP models. Moreover, the noncooperative Foreign policymakers in the ACP model can manipulate not only the internal relative price but also deviations from the law of one price in favor of their own welfare through nominal exchange rate adjustment, whereas the noncooperative Home policymakers can control neither. This result rationalizes the fact that the U.S. designates currency manipulators to protect its welfare. Therefore, gains from cooperation in Home are larger than in Foreign. Furthermore, I find that there are substantial gains from cooperation in the ACP model even under the conditions that remove gains from cooperation in the LCP and PCP models.
在大多数国际贸易交易中，都使用美元。因此，本文考虑了非对称货币定价(ACP)下的两国模型的最优货币政策，其中美国(本国)企业使用生产者货币定价(PCP)，而世界其他国家(外国)企业使用本地货币定价(LCP)。在ACP模型中，存在额外的无效率，即与LCP模型相比存在内部相对价格扭曲，与PCP模型相比存在偏离一价定律而产生的扭曲。因此，与LCP和PCP模型相比，ACP模型中货币政策合作的福利收益要大得多。此外，在ACP模型中，不合作的外国决策者不仅可以操纵内部相对价格，还可以通过名义汇率调整来偏离单一价格规律，从而有利于本国的福利，而不合作的本国决策者两者都不能控制。这一结果合理化了美国指认汇率操纵国是为了保护其福利的事实。因此，国内合作的收益大于国外合作的收益。此外，我发现，即使在去掉LCP和PCP模型中合作收益的条件下，ACP模型中的合作也有实质性的收益。
20.The value of sick pay
病假工资的价值
Abi Adams-Prassl, Teodora Boneva, Marta Golin, Christopher Rauh
Not all countries provide universal access to publicly funded paid sick pay. Amongst countries that do, compensation rates can be low and coverage incomplete. This leaves a significant role for employer-provided paid sick pay in many countries. In this paper, we study who has access to employer-provided sick pay and how much it is valued by workers for themselves and others. We find that workers in jobs with high contact to others are particularly unlikely to have employer provided sick pay, as are economically insecure workers who are least able to afford unpaid time off work. We find that workers without sick pay are more likely to say that they will work when experiencing cold-like symptoms and are less willing to expose themselves to health risks at work during the pandemic. Using vignettes, we reveal that large shares of workers have a very high, but even more have a very low willingness to sacrifice earnings for access to sick pay. Together our findings highlight the unequal distribution of access to sick pay and the potentially strong negative externalities of not providing it publicly. The pandemic may have made these issues more salient as perceived probabilities of having to self-isolate are positively related to support for publicly provided sick pay. Finally, we find that providing information on the health externality of paid sick leave increases support for the public provision of sick pay, suggesting that there might be a public under-provision because individuals do not factor in the externalities.
并非所有国家都能普遍获得公共资助的带薪病假工资。在这些国家中，补偿率可能很低，覆盖范围也不完整。在许多国家，雇主提供的带薪病假工资发挥着重要作用。在本文中，我们研究了谁有机会获得雇主提供的病假工资，以及工人对自己和其他人的价值有多大。我们发现，从事与他人密切接触的工作的工人特别不可能得到雇主提供的病假工资，经济上没有保障的工人也是如此，他们最无力负担无薪休假。我们发现，没有病假工资的工人更有可能说，当出现感冒症状时，他们会工作，在大流行期间，他们不太愿意在工作中暴露在健康风险中。使用小插曲，我们揭示了很大一部分工人有一个非常高的，但更多的人有一个非常低的意愿牺牲收入来获得病假工资。我们的研究结果共同强调了病假工资分配不均的问题，以及不公开提供病假工资可能带来的强烈负面外部性。大流行可能使这些问题更加突出，因为人们认为必须自我隔离的可能性与对公共提供的病假工资的支持呈正相关。最后，我们发现，提供关于带薪病假的健康外部性的信息增加了公众提供病假工资的支持，这表明可能存在公共提供不足的情况，因为个人没有考虑外部性。
21.Consumer mobility and expenditure during the COVID-19 containments: Evidence from French transaction data
COVID-19遏制期间的消费者流动性和支出:来自法国交易数据的证据
David Bounie, Youssouf Camara, John W. Galbraith
This paper investigates the effects of the pandemic containment periods in France on individuals’ movements, expenditure and adaptation to the shock, using billions of French bank card transactions measured before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We measure not only the effect on consumer expenditure, but also on quantities directly related to the containment restrictions, such as consumer mobility, number of retailers visited, and inter-regional purchases. The results show large effects on these measures of consumers’ movements, as well as on both online and offline measures of expenditure, particularly in the first containment period. We also find evidence that consumers adjusted rapidly during the first containment period, mitigating the effects of mobility restrictions via an increasing shift toward online purchasing, and that the nature of the adaptation differed for different types of purchase.
本文使用COVID-19大流行之前和期间测量的数十亿法国银行卡交易，调查了法国大流行遏制期对个人流动、支出和适应冲击的影响。我们不仅衡量对消费者支出的影响，还衡量与遏制限制直接相关的数量，如消费者流动性、走访零售商数量和地区间采购。结果显示，这些消费者流动措施以及在线和线下支出措施受到了很大影响，特别是在第一个遏制期。我们还发现，有证据表明，消费者在第一个遏制期迅速调整，通过越来越多地转向在线购买来缓解流动性限制的影响，而且适应的性质因购买类型的不同而不同。
22.The macroeconomics of age-varying epidemics
不同年龄流行病的宏观经济学
Marta Giagheddu, Andrea Papetti
We incorporate age-specific socio-economic interactions in a SIR macroeconomic model to study the role of demographic factors for the COVID-19 epidemic evolution, its macroeconomic effects and possible containment measures. We capture the endogenous response of rational individuals who choose to reduce inter- and intra-generational social interactions, consumption- and labor-related personal exposure to the virus, while not internalizing the impact of their actions on others. We find that social distancing measures targeted to the elderly (who face higher mortality risk and are not part of the labor force) are best suited to save lives and mitigate output losses. The optimal economic shutdown generates small gains in terms of lives saved and large output losses, for any given type of social distancing. These results are confirmed by calibrating the model to match real epidemic and economic data in the context of a scenario exercise.
我们将特定年龄的社会经济互动纳入SIR宏观经济模型，以研究人口因素对COVID-19疫情演变的作用、其宏观经济影响和可能的遏制措施。我们捕捉了理性个体的内生反应，他们选择减少代际和代内的社会互动、消费和劳动相关的个人对病毒的暴露，而不是内化他们的行为对他人的影响。我们发现，针对老年人(他们面临更高的死亡风险，不属于劳动力)的社会距离措施最适合拯救生命和减轻产出损失。对于任何一种特定的社交距离措施来说，最优的经济停歇在挽救生命方面带来的收益都很小，而产出损失却很大。通过在情景演练的背景下校准模型以匹配真实的流行病和经济数据，这些结果得到了证实。
23.Germany’s capacity to work from home
德国在家工作的能力
Jean-Victor Alipour, Oliver Falck, Simone Schüller
We propose an index of working from home (WFH) capacity for the German economy, drawing on rich survey and administrative data. We find that 56 percent of jobs are WFH feasible, most of which are located in urban areas and in highly digitized industries. Using individual-level data on tasks and work conditions, we show that heterogeneity in WFH feasibility is largely explained by differences in task content. WFH feasible jobs are typically characterized by cognitive, non-manual tasks, and PC usage. We compare our survey-based measure with popular task-based measures of WFH capacity, which usually rely on determining tasks that are incompatible with WFH, and show that task-based approaches capture variation in WFH capacity across occupations fairly accurately. A simple measure of PC use intensity will generally constitute a suitable proxy for WFH capacity. Finally, we demonstrate that our WFH index is a strong predictor of actual WFH outcomes during the Covid-19 crisis and discuss applications in the context of the pandemic and the future of work.
我们利用丰富的调查和管理数据，为德国经济提出了一个在家工作(WFH)能力指数。我们发现，56%的工作是可行的，其中大多数位于城市地区和高度数字化的行业。利用任务和工作条件的个体层面数据，我们发现WFH可行性的异质性在很大程度上可以被任务内容的差异所解释。WFH可行工作的典型特征是认知、非手工任务和PC使用。我们比较了我们的基于调查的衡量方法与流行的基于任务的WFH能力衡量方法，后者通常依赖于确定与WFH不兼容的任务，并表明基于任务的方法相当准确地捕获了不同职业的WFH能力差异。对PC使用强度的简单衡量通常将构成WFH容量的合适代理。最后，我们证明，我们的WFH指数是Covid-19危机期间实际WFH结果的强大预测器，并在大流行和未来工作的背景下讨论应用。
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